Global Warming : Fear Psychosis or Real Threat

Excerpts from State of Fear by Michael Crichton.

Let's remember where we live. We live on the third planet from a medium-size sun. Our planet is five billion years old, and it has been changing constantly all during that time. The Earth is now on its third atmosphere.

The first atmosphere was helium and hydrogen. It dissipated early on, because the planet was so hot. Then, as the planet cooled, volcanic eruptions produced a second atmosphere of steam and carbon-dioxide. Later the water vapor condensed, forming the oceans that cover most of the planet. Then, around three billion years ago, some bacteria evolved to consume carbon-dioxide and excrete a highly toxic gas, oxygen. Other bacteria released nitrogen. The atmospheric concentration of these gases slowly increased. Organisms that could not adapt died out.

Meanwhile the planet's land masses, floating on huge tectonic plates, eventually came together in a configuration that interfered with the circulation of ocean currents. It began to get cold for the first time. The first ice appeared two billion years ago.

And for the last seven hundred thousand years, our planet has been in a geological ice age, characterized by advancing and retreating glacial ice. No one is entirely sure why, but ice now covers the planet every hundred thousand years, with smaller advances every twenty thousand or so. The last advance was twenty thousand years ago, so weÂ’re due for the next one.

And even today, after five billion years, our planet remains amazingly active. We have five hundred volcanoes, and an eruption every two weeks. Earthquakes are continuous: a million and a half each year, a moderate Richter 5 quake every six hours, a big earthquake every ten days. Tsunamis race across the Pacific Ocean every three months.

Our atmosphere is as violent as the land beneath it. At any moment there are one thousand five hundred electrical storms across the planet. Eleven lightning bolts strike the ground each second. A tornado tears across the surface every six hours. And every four days, a giant cyclonic storm, hundreds of miles in diameter, spins over the ocean and wreaks havoc on the land.

The nasty little apes that call themselves human beings can do nothing except run and hide. For these same apes to imagine they can stabilize this atmosphere is arrogant beyond belief. They can't control the climate.

The truth is, they run from the storms.

Oh no, I am not an oil or automobile industry stooge. Believe me, I was not bribed to publish the above excerpt by any of the big corporations (I am not closed to that option though). Its just that I can see pure logic and rationale as distinct from rhetoric. I do not belong to any side. In fact I have had the opportunity to be on both sides of the fence and I didn't see the grass greener on any particular side. I am referring to my work on the Kyoto Protocol here. For a longtime, I was a strong believer in the mitigation effects of the Kyoto Protocol. And, probably, still am. How can one give up on an idea that one thinks he originally came up with, the carbon credits exchange. It might sound self-congratulatory, or in the least, "I told you so" attitude. But yes, I do believe that I came up with the carbon credits exchange before those guys in IPCC did. I still remember the well meaning girls in my school who were baying for my blood when I told them that the rich could actually buy polluting rights from a stock exchange and thus pay for the more ecologically sound ventures. Never underestimate the power of free market incentives to be environmentally responsible, I tried to tell them. But they favored legislation and bans and leered at my contract with the Devil himself.

To get the things back on track, do you believe in global warming? And if so, is it a belief rooted in "everybody thinks so" or do you have some real evidence. Mind you, when you say global warming, you imply that the whole of the globe is warming up. Do you have irrefutable evidence for that?

And if we take it for granted that the globe is, in fact, warming up, is it because of us, the human intervention? Can this be proved either way?

If we can shoot a rocket into the space and determine its trajectory as accurately as a few meters, why can't we predict the weather on this Earth a week hence?

How morally justified is it for the developed world to tell us in the third-world not to pollute? Doesn't it preserve the economic advantages of the West and thus constitute modern imperialism toward the developing world?

Can we afford to live in a State of Fear of what will happen hundred years hence when the biggest problems of our times, poverty, terrorism, religious orthodoxy, hard borders, etc. stare us right into the face?

Can we?

Dry Day Hai Bhai

Munnabhai : Yeh 2nd October ko kya hai Circuit?

Circuit : Errrr , Dry Day hai bhai.

Its quite intriguing how our relative perceptions make a world of difference to how we look at everyday real life situations. For some of us 2nd October is the Gandhi Jayanti. For some others amongst us, its a Dry Day. For some other more politically correct and slightly pedantic types, October 2nd is also the birth anniversary of Lal Bahadur Shastri. But for most of us Indians, it is just another National Holiday.

Let me add some more birth/death anniversaries and notable events from history to the above.

Why? Coz I just love to mess things up. Or probably, coz I believe in the more, the merrier. Or plain simple coz I want to increase the overall entropy of the universe. So here I go.

Events :

1187 - Siege of Jerusalem: Saladin captures Jerusalem after 88 years of Crusader rule.
1535 - Jacques Cartier discovers Montreal, Quebec.
1552 - Conquest of Kazan by Ivan the Terrible.
1789 - George Washington transmits the proposed Constitutional amendments (the so-called "Bill of Rights") to the States for ratification.
1889 - In Colorado, Nicholas Creede strikes it rich in silver during the last great silver boom of the American Old West.
1919 - US President Woodrow Wilson suffers a massive stroke, leaving him partially paralyzed.
1924 - The Geneva Protocol is adopted as a means to strengthen the League of Nations.
1928 - The "Prelature of the Holy Cross and the Work of God", commonly known as Opus Dei, was founded by Saint Josemaría Escrivá.
1935 - Italy invades Abyssinia (Ethiopia).
1937 - Samuel R. Caldwell becomes the first person is the United States to be arrested on a marijuana charge.
1941 - World War II: In Operation Typhoon, Germany begins an all-out offensive against Moscow.
1944 - World War II: Nazi troops end the Warsaw Uprising.
1950 - The comic strip Peanuts by Charles M. Schulz is first published in seven US newspapers.
1958 - Guinea declares itself independent from France.
1968 - A peaceful student demonstration in Mexico City ends in the Tlatelolco massacre. 1978 - Experiments on monkeys in America reveal how smoking cannabis can cause brain damage.
1990 - A Chinese airline Boeing 737-247 is hijacked; after landing at Guangzhou, it crashes into two airliners on the ground, killing 132 people.

Births :

1452 - King Richard III of England (d. 1485)
1538 - Saint Charles Borromeo, Italian cardinal (d. 1584)
1644 - François-Timoléon de Choisy, French writer (d. 1724)
1722 - Leopold Widhalm, Austrian luthier (d. 1776)
1737 - Francis Hopkinson, American author and signer of the Declaration of Independence (d. 1791)
1768 - William Carr Beresford, 1st Viscount Beresford, British general and politician (d. 1854)
1798 - King Charles Albert of Sardinia (d. 1849)
1800 - Nat Turner, American leader of slave uprising (d. 1831)
1828 - Charles Floquet, French statesman (d. 1896)
1832 - Edward Burnett Tylor, English anthropologist (d. 1917)
1847 - Paul von Hindenburg, German officer and politician (d. 1934)
1851 - Ferdinand Foch, French soldier (d. 1929)
1852 - William Ramsay, Scottish chemist (d. 1916)
1869 - Mahatma Gandhi, Indian political leader, Father of the Nation (d. 1948)
1871 - Cordell Hull, United States Secretary of State, recipient of the Nobel Peace Prize (d. 1955)
1873 - Plum Warner, English cricketer (d. 1963)
1879 - Wallace Stevens, American poet (d. 1955)
1882 - Boris Shaposhnikov, Russian military commander (d. 1945)
1890 - Groucho Marx, American comedian and actor (d. 1977)
1895 - Bud Abbott, American comedian and actor (d. 1974)
1901 - Alice Prin, French singer and artist (d. 1953)
1904 - Graham Greene, British novelist (d. 1991)
1904 - Lal Bahadur Shastri, Prime Minister of India (d.1966)
1907 - Alexander R. Todd, Baron Todd, Scottish chemist, Nobel Prize laureate (d. 1997)
1911 - Jack Finney, American author (d. 1995)
1913 - Karl Miller, German footballer (d. 1967)
1914 - Jack Parsons, American rocket scientist (d. 1952)
1917 - Christian de Duve, English-born biologist, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine
1917 - Charles Drake, American actor (d. 1994)
1921 - Albert Scott Crossfield, American test pilot (d. 2006)
1921 - Robert Runcie, Archbishop of Canterbury (d. 2000)
1926 - Jan Morris, English writer
1928 - George "Spanky" McFarland, American actor (d. 1993)
1929 - Moses Gunn, African-American actor (d. 1993)
1930 - Dave Barrett, Premier of British Columbia
1932 - Maury Wills, American baseball player
1934 - Earl Wilson, American baseball player (d. 2005)
1935 - Omar Sivori, Argentine football player (d. 2005)
1937 - Johnnie L. Cochran Jr., American attorney (d. 2005)
1938 - Rex Reed, American movie critic and actor
1938 - Waheed Murad, Pakistani film actor and director (d. 1983)
1943 - Franklin Rosemont, American artist
1945 - Don McLean, American songwriter
1948 - Avery Brooks, American actor
1948 - Donna Karan, American fashion designer
1948 - Chris LeDoux, American musician and rodeo performer (d. 2005)
1949 - Richard Hell, American musician
1949 - Annie Leibovitz, American photographer
1950 - Persis Khambatta, Indian actress (d. 1998)
1950 - Michael Rutherford, British musician (Genesis)
1951 - Sting, British musician and actor
1951 - Romina Power, Italian singer
1955 - Lorraine Bracco, American actress
1955 - Phil Oakey, British singer (The Human League)
1960 - Glenn Anderson, Canadian ice hockey player
1964 - Dirk Brinkmann, German field hockey player
1966 - Rodney "Yokozuna" Anoai, Samoan wrestler (d. 2000)
1967 - Frankie Fredericks, Namibian athlete
1967 - Bud Gaugh, American musician (Sublime)
1967 - Gillian Welch, American singer and songwriter
1968 - Jana Novotná, Czech tennis player
1968 - Glen Wesley, Canadian ice hockey players
1969 - Mitch English, American actor
1969 - Damon Gough,English singer
1970 - Kelly Ripa, American actress
1971 - James Root, American guitarist (Slipknot)
1971 - Tiffany, American singer
1973 - DeShaun Holton American musician (ex-D12) (d. 2006)
1973 - Lene, Norweigan singer (ex-Aqua)
1973 - Efren Ramirez, American actor
1974 - Paul Teutul Jr., Co-Star of American Chopper
1974 - Sam Roberts, Canadian singer and songwriter
1974 - Simon Gregson, British actor (Coronation Street)
1978 - Ayumi Hamasaki, Japanese singer
1981 - Luke Wilkshire, Australian footballer
1982 - George Pettit, Canadian singer (Alexisonfire)
1987 - Phil Kessel, American ice hockey player Boston Bruins


Deaths :

939 - Gilbert, Duke of Lorraine
1264 - Pope Urban IV
1559 - Jacquet of Mantua, French composer (b. 1483)
1626 - Diego Sarmiento de Acuña, conde de Gondomar, Spanish diplomat (b. 1567)
1629 - Pierre de Bérulle, French cardinal and statesman (b. 1575)
1629 - Antonio Cifra, Italian composer (b. 1584)
1708 - Anne-Jules, 2nd duc de Noailles, French general (b. 1650)
1724 - François-Timoléon de Choisy, French writer (b. 1644)
1746 - Josiah Burchett, English Secretary of the Admiralty
1764 - William Cavendish, 4th Duke of Devonshire, Prime Minister of Great Britain
1775 - Chiyo-ni, Japanese poet (b. 1703)
1782 - Charles Lee, British and U.S. general
1786 - Augustus Keppel, 1st Viscount Keppel, British admiral (b. 1725)
1803 - Samuel Adams, American revolutionary leader (b. 1722)
1804 - Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot, French automobile pioneer (b. 1725)
1817 - Fyodor Fyodorovich Ushakov, Russian naval commander and admiral (b. 1744)
1846 - Benjamin Waterhouse, Cambridge physician and medical professor (smallpox vaccine pioneer) (b. 1754)
1850 - Sarah Biffen, English painter (b. 1784)
1853 - François Jean Dominique Arago, French mathematician (b. 1786)
1927 - Svante Arrhenius, Swedish chemist, Nobel Prize laureate (b. 1859)
1938 - Alexandru Averescu, Romanian soldier and politician (b. 1859)
1962 - Boris Y. Bukreev, Russian mathematician (b. 1859)
1968 - Marcel Duchamp, French artist (b. 1887)
1973 - Paul Hartman, American actor (b. 1904)
1973 - Paavo Nurmi, Finnish runner (b. 1897)
1974 - Vasily Shukshin, Russian writer, actor, screenwriter, and director (b. 1929)
1975 - Kumaraswami Kamaraj, Indian Political leader, Chief Minister of Tamil Nadu (b. 1903)
1981 - Harry Golden, American journalist (b. 1902)
1981 - Hazel Scott, West Indian-born singer (b. 1920)
1985 - Rock Hudson, American actor (b. 1925)
1987 - Peter Medawar, Brazilian-born scientist, recipient of the Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine (b. 1915)
1987 - Madeleine Carroll, British-born actress (b. 1906)
1994 - Harriet Hilliard Nelson, American actress (b. 1909)
1996 - Robert Bourassa, politician, premier of Quebec (b. 1933)
1998 - Gene Autry, American singer, actor, and entrepreneur (b. 1907)
1999 - Heinz G. Konsalik, German novelist (b. 1921)
2001 - Franz Biebl, German composer (b. 1906)
2002 - Heinz von Foerster, Austrian-born physicist and philosopher (b. 1911)
2003 - John T. Dunlop, U.S. Secretary of Labor (b. 1914)
2005 - Bert Eriksson, Belgain neo-Nazi (b. 1931)
2005 - Nipsey Russell, American comedian (b. 1918)
2005 - August Wilson, American playwright (b. 1945)

Holidays and Observances :

Yom Kippur (2006) (note: begins before sunset on October 1st)
Roman festivals - First day of the Ludi Augustales to celebrate the recovery by emperor August of Roman standards from the Parthians
Roman Catholic Church - Memorial of Guardian Angels
Guinea - Independence Day (from France, 1958)
India - Gandhi Jayanti (birthday of Mahatma Gandhi, 1869)
French Republican Calendar - Pomme de terre (Potato) Day, eleventh day in the Month of Vendémiaire

Quite an ordinary list, I must add. For sure if one were to invest some time, one could come up with such a list for every day of the year. So why did I choose October 2nd to increase the overall entropy of the universe? Not that simple, aye?

Ok, in PrevirLand the day will be celebrated (I hope) or in the least remembered as The Day of What Could Have Been. Ok, going OHT? Let me explain. If you have ever read a mystery novel with alternate endings, it'll be easy. The reader is asked by the author to choose a desirable ending during the plot and the choice he makes takes him to the pages with his desired ending. That then there is the gist of The Day of What Could Have Been.

For the more perseverant kind, let me quote Richard Bach from One.

"It is about choices we make. And how the direction of our lives comes down to the choices we choose. A tiny change today brings us to a dramatically different tomorrow. There are grand rewards for those who pick the high hard roads, but those rewards are hidden by years. Every choice is made in the uncaring blind, no guarantees form the world around us."

If you still don't see the significance, imagine the concept of a multiverse. A set of parallel universes. A new universe getting created every second because of the alternate choices that we have and the different decisions that we make. So every time that you have to make a decision between two things ... to be or not to be, to go ahead or not to go ahead, imagine that the universe gets split into two; one in which you do go ahead and an alternate one in which you don't.

So October 2nd, though not a day on which my universe decided to undergo fission (it split up sometime before on September 15th itself), it still marks an important event in the alternate universe where the other Previr decided, to his own peril/joy, to go ahead. So I want to wish him luck and as his universe floats away, bid him farewell.

Adios brother. May you have a full life.

For me in this universe, October 2nd is still a National Holiday and ... dry day hai bhai.